論文紹介 (Simpson et al. 2025 Sci. Adv.)

Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations

Simpson, I. R., Shaw, T. A., Ceppi, P., Clement, A. C., Fischer, E., Grise, K. M., ... & Po-Chedley, S. (2025). Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations. Science Advances, 11(11), eadt8035.

ESMが観測されるトレンドのうち何を再現していて何を再現していないのか、がよく纏められた、非常に勉強になる論文(研究者向けだが)。特にTable 1．

また，discrepancyについてあり得る理由についての整理：

1) The simulated response to the observed external forcings could be in error.

2) Internal variability in the models may be misrepresented (e.g., if internal variability is too small, the distribution from a model may not encompass the observed trend even if the forced trend is well represented).

3) The observation-based external forcings prescribed within the model may be misrepresented.

4) The observational record may underestimate or lack uncertainty information and may contain unresolved or undiagnosed biases.

5) There could be issues with the methods that are used to perform the comparison against observations.

や，ESMと観測のトレンドの一致・不一致のカテゴリ分け：

The successes (S) are examples where there is a substantial trend in the observed record and both the sign and magnitude of that trend are well represented in most models;

the partial successes (PS) are those where there is a substantial trend in the observed record and the sign and structure of that trend are well represented in models but the magnitude is not; 

the discrepancies (D) are cases where there is a substantial trend in the observations and/or the models but they disagree; 

and the uncertain trends (U) are cases where there are concerns that either models may have captured historical trends for the wrong reasons, where internal variability makes it challenging to draw firm conclusions, or where there is a substantial concern about the fidelity of the observational record.

など，非常にためになると感じる．

これから何を研究すべきかを考える上で間違いなく参考になるので、一読して損はないように思う。

2024/03にボルダーで行われたUS CLIVARのワークショップ “Confronting Earth System Model Trends with Observations” での議論を踏まえたレビューペーパーだと思われる．

関連する参考になりそうな論文↓

Shaw, T. A., Arias, P. A., Collins, M., Coumou, D., Diedhiou, A., Garfinkel, C. I., ... & Wang, L. (2024). Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward. Frontiers in climate, 6, 1391634.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Alexander, L. V., King, A. D., Kew, S. F., Philip, S. Y., Barnes, C., ... & Zscheischler, J. (2024). Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts. Frontiers in Climate, 6, 1455023.

Shaw, T. A., Arblaster, J. M., Birner, T., Butler, A. H., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., ... & Karpechko, A. Y. (2024). Emerging climate change signals in atmospheric circulation. AGU Advances, 5(6), e2024AV001297.