Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations Simpson, I. R., Shaw, T. A., Ceppi, P., Clement, A. C., Fischer, E., Grise, K. M., ... & Po-Chedley, S. (2025). Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations. Science Advances , 11 (11), eadt8035. ESMが観測されるトレンドのうち何を再現していて何を再現していないのか、がよく纏められた、非常に勉強になる論文(研究者向けだが)。特にTable 1. また,discrepancyについてあり得る理由についての整理: 1) The simulated response to the observed external forcings could be in error. 2) Internal variability in the models may be misrepresented (e.g., if internal variability is too small, the distribution from a model may not encompass the observed trend even if the forced trend is well represented). 3) The observation-based external forcings prescribed within the model may be misrepresented. 4) The observational record may underestimate or lack uncertainty information and may contain unresolved or undiagnosed biases. 5) There could be issues with the methods that are used to perform the comparison against obs...